The Dunning-Kruger Effect is the emotional journey of evaluating and Implementing any complex project. ERP implementations are complex projects.

In the early phases of ERP selection, decision-makers are often confident they understand what their organization needs. Sales demos and vendor promises can amplify this misplaced confidence, leading to underestimation of the project’s complexity. As the implementation unfolds, these decision-makers frequently encounter unforeseen obstacles—triggering the humbling realization that they may have overestimated their expertise and underestimated the challenges involved.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect – A form of cognitive bias where those with little expertise or ability are convinced, they have superior expertise or ability. Is it possible they don’t have enough knowledge to know that they don’t have enough knowledge?
In ERP projects, the Dunning-Kruger curve mirrors the project lifecycle: early optimism during vendor selection, frustration during data migration or user training, and eventual competence as teams adapt to the system. Recognizing this emotional arc can help project teams anticipate challenges and stay grounded during the implementation process.



They say that 80% of ERP success is dependent on the expertise of the implementation partner and only 20% can be attributed to ERP functionality. Yet competence in the implementation of ERP is usually assumed. Partner expertise is usually evaluated last through selective vendor references, or not at all.
- ERP is complex. How is it possible sales demos lasting hours will provide you competence when it takes years to be fluent with any ERP?
- The value of change management and process re-engineering are almost always underestimated.
- How can you evaluate expertise in any implementation partner? Will calling their 3 favorite customers be objective?
Experienced ERP partners do more than implement technology—they act as guides through the Dunning-Kruger journey. By setting realistic expectations, providing continuous education, and involving organizations in every step of the process, they help teams progress from overconfidence to informed competence. The right partner doesn't just deliver a system; they empower your organization to leverage it effectively.
If you're considering implementing an ERP system, or if you feel you're not getting the most out of your current solution, don't leave success to chance. Book a free ERP assessment call today.

Brett Austin
Enterprise Business Systems Executive Advisor

Andy Pratico
Business Improvement Advisor & ERP Evaluation Coach